🛰️ Daily Macro Briefing — May 13, 2026
VIX 18.0 (61st pct) | Stock F&G 67 | Put/Call 1.24 The Trump-Xi summit has the entire room watching Beijing. Meanwhile, gold and 10-year Treasury yields are both climbing while the dollar stays flat. That specific… Inside this report: 🟡 Cautious · 🌍 REALITY GAP — The Summit They're Not Watching · 📊 SCENARIOS — Summit + Stagflation Signals: The Trump-Xi summit has the entire room watching Beijing. Meanwhile, gold…
Report Excerpt
VIX 18.0 (61st pct) | Stock F&G 67 | Put/Call 1.24
The Trump-Xi summit has the entire room watching Beijing. Meanwhile, gold and 10-year Treasury yields are both climbing while the dollar stays flat. That specific configuration — precious metals and sovereign yields rising in lockstep…
The decisive layer stays hidden.
The Trump-Xi summit has the entire room watching Beijing. Meanwhile, gold and 10-year Treasury yields are both climbing while the dollar stays flat.…
Every summit headline is a spotlight pointed at diplomacy. The stagflation fingerprint is painted on the wall behind it.
The Iran deal paradox:
What the teaser already tells you
Compressed cues pulled directly from the report body.
The Trump-Xi summit has the entire room watching Beijing. Meanwhile, gold and 10-year Treasury yields are both climbing while the dollar stays flat. That specific configuration —…
Summit Bull (45%): Trade framework + partial chip export ease.
Summit Bear (20%): Taiwan arms discussion poisons the room.
TSMC supply risk explicitly priced in. SMH -5-8% in 2 sessions.
Read that combination carefully. Gold rising = inflation/risk fear. Yields rising = growth expectations OR inflation. Dollar flat = not pure flight-to-safety (DXY would rally).…
Today's confirmation signal: copper +2.51% and silver +2.64% — but both flagged with BEARISH_DIVERGENCE on volume. The surface sparkles while the internals hollow out. Paint on a…
Gold Vs Bonds
GLD (Gold) vs TLT (Long Bonds) ratio. Rising = inflation expectations building, real rates falling. Gold wins when markets price stagflation or Fed policy error. Bond wins when deflation/recession fears dominate.
Oil Price
WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) 6-month price action. Sustained move above $90 = inflation re-acceleration risk. Drop below $60 = demand destruction signal, deflationary pressure. Watch for backwardation (front month premium) as…
Spy Rsp Breadth
S&P 500 (SPY) vs Equal Weight (RSP) ratio. The market breadth indicator. SPY outperforming RSP sharply = narrow leadership = hidden weakness beneath the index.
🟡 Cautious
VIX 18.0 (61st pct) | Stock F&G 67 | Put/Call 1.24
The Trump-Xi summit has the entire room watching Beijing. Meanwhile, gold and 10-year Treasury yields are both climbing while the dollar stays flat.…
Every summit headline is a spotlight pointed at diplomacy. The stagflation fingerprint is painted on the wall behind it.
🌍 REALITY GAP — The Summit They're Not Watching
The Trump-Xi meeting is getting 100% of the financial media oxygen. The Polymarket contracts that actually move portfolios are getting zero.
The Iran deal paradox:
Polymarket prices Iran ending uranium enrichment by December at 53% YES ($168K volume). 🔺
📊 SCENARIOS — Summit + Stagflation
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Deeper chart context, tactical framing, and positioning notes stay hidden in the locked section.
📊 SCENARIOS (Summit outcome × macro regime)
Summit Bull (45%): Trade framework + partial chip export ease.
NVDA and SMH fly, VIX drops toward 14-15, KOSPI extends rally.
Precedent: US-China Phase 1 (Dec 2019), S&P +4% in 1 week.