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Gex History
Gex History synced from Sentinel's chart arsenal.
Us10Y Yield
US 10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX). The global benchmark rate. Drives mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs. Rapid spikes often trigger equity selloffs.
Gex History
Gex History synced from Sentinel's chart arsenal.
Us10Y Yield
US 10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX). The global benchmark rate. Drives mortgage rates and corporate borrowing costs. Rapid spikes often trigger equity selloffs.
The market's mechanical stabilizer collapsed 63% overnight. Gamma exposure, which forces market makers to smooth swings, dropped from $21.3B to $7.8B. The surface still looks calm, but the plumbing is fragile.
Active Lens
📉 Dark Pool + Options
SIGNAL: Volatility suppression vs institutional demand divergence
FACT: GEX fell 63% overnight while DIX stayed above 40% accumulation threshold
INTERPRETATION: Dealer volatility suppression is materially weaker, but off-exchange institutional demand has not disappeared. The question is whether gamma breaks first or institutional support holds.
Why it matters: This is a classic divergence. Gamma says the surface is fragile. DIX suggests institutional demand has not disappeared.
SCENARIO MAP — 5–15 trading days
Base Case — 45%
Market remains range-bound. Gamma rebuilds, yields stabilize, VIX stays below 20.
Downside Repricing — 35%
VIX breaks 20, yields remain above 4.65%, oil refuses to confirm de-escalation. The thinner gamma cushion amplifies moves.
Relief Extension — 20%
Oil breaks below $100, DIX remains above 40%, credit spreads stay stable.
Watchlist
- VIX above 20 — confirms volatility expansion, shifts probability toward Downside Repricing
- US 10Y Yield above 4.65% — confirms rate pressure
- Oil below $100 — weakens geopolitical inflation thesis
- DIX below 38% — signals institutional dark buyers are retreating
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